eVTOLs: The Ultimate Gamble in the Financial World's Riskiest Sector
The eVTOL sector represents the apex of risk within the global equity markets—a perilous, uncharted domain teetering on the edge of uncertainty. The challenge is not merely to create a viable prototype; it is to navigate the labyrinthine complexity of certifications, the stringent demands of thousands of test miles, and the relentless pursuit of technological innovation. All of these hurdles must be surmounted if a company dares to even dream of revenue—years, perhaps decades, down the line.
The chilling demise of Kitty Hawk, founded by Google co-founder Larry Page, serves as a stark warning. Despite a well-funded venture boasting over 80 patents, Kitty Hawk succumbed to the sector's relentless demands, shutting down after an 11-year struggle. The risk is not a distant possibility; it's an immediate and brutal reality. The specter of absolute ruin is not merely a shadow; it is a tangible presence, haunting every venture that dares to tread this treacherous path.
In the eVTOL sector, the stakes are astronomical, and the margin for error is razor-thin. It's a high-wire act without a safety net, a gamble where the dice are loaded, and the house always wins. It's not for the faint of heart; it's for those who dare to dream big but must be prepared to fall hard.
EVEX: The Apex of Risk, Absurdity, and Chaos
In this unstable landscape, EVEX emerges as the embodiment of risk—an entity whose every move resonates with unsettling audacity:
They have yet to develop a prototype despite being found in 2017, its been 7 years with nothing of value produced while their competitors have been flying test flights since 2016 (ehang) and 2017 (joby)
Despite not having a prototype they have the insane audacity to still project revenue from selling EVTOLs in 2026 while there competitors who have been flying for many years project revenues from flight at the very earliest in 2025
Adding to the absurd insanity of their projection they still are scrambling to come up with a viable model and have recently had to change their model a few months ago
All this has lead to leadership chaos as board members and the CEO has just recently stepped down
Industry insiders say Eve is stacked with mid level engineers and are scrambling to come up with a viable design for a prototype, this chaos I am told is connected to the CEO and board members recent resignations, two separate industry insiders concurred with this assessment. The new CEO Johanm Burdois former head of service and support at embraer does very little to improve the companies prospects. Industry insiders point to the fact this new CEO has zero tech background unlike the CEOs of all the other EVTOL companies and underscores the core problem at Eves issues lack to innovation
In a sector where IP is king they have none while ehang has over 300 patents and Joby has over 160 EVEX has only 4 only one of which is issued in the US
A Disturbing Misalignment: Chasing Shadows While Ignoring Substance
In the high-stakes game of eVTOL development, the integrity of a company's focus can make or break its future. Disturbingly, one company appears to be losing its way, ensnared in a web of superficial pursuits. The alarming fixation on securing worthless LOIs—non-binding and devoid of real substance—reveals a strategy teetering on the brink of folly. The feverish chase after deals with suppliers, while perhaps lucrative on the surface, betrays a deeper malaise.
The most crucial aspect, the very heart of the venture—the actual design of the plane—is in shambles. This core failure is not merely a stumble; it's a catastrophic fall. It's a sign of a company that has lost sight of its true north, distracted by shiny objects and ignoring the foundational principles of engineering and innovation.
In the unforgiving arena of eVTOL development, such misalignment is not a mere misstep; it's a perilous slide toward oblivion. A company that neglects the essence of its mission, that forsakes the rigors of design for the fleeting allure of deals and appearances, is a company on a collision course with failure.
Their MKT cap is absurd 2.1 billion thats more than their original parent company Embraer the produces over 4 billion dollar in revenue a year and despite Lillium and vertical aerospace having test flown for many years the MKT cap of EVEX is over 4 times larger than their peers.
Shady promotional tactics include producing life like cgi to pass off as their plane and workers , A Curious Deal: Halo Aviation and Ken Ricci's Connection
In the process of going public, a deal was loudly announced with Halo Aviation—a company indirectly owned by Ken Ricci, the very head of the SPAC. Since that bold proclamation, both parties have fallen conspicuously silent, with neither mentioning it again nor issuing any updates. Adding to the intrigue, Ricci himself has just recently unexpectedly since stepped down from the board.
The connection between Halo Aviation and Ricci, coupled with the subsequent silence and resignation, casts a shadow of uncertainty over this partnership. The lack of transparency raises questions and demands closer examination.
Worthless LOIs: Non-binding and essentially meaningless, reflecting a company more concerned with appearance than substance.
EVE is the only equity with a mkt cap in the billions that legitimately has proven nothing and has a clear and present risk of being a absolute zero especially taken into account the ceo and board resignations they hyper focus on non binding loi’s and total lack of IP . And the best cast scenario isnt too great either they would need to raise likely another 500 million dollars and at the very least 2 years before they even sniff making a penny of revenue
Quote from the company given to Elan Head on recent model changes
“We have continued to mature our aircraft design as the program evolves with learnings from our building blocks approach and interaction with suppliers to match customers' needs, focusing on efficiency, safety, reliability, sustainability and cost of operation. The latest design includes an electric pusher powered by dual electric motors that provide propulsion redundancy while ensuring high performance and safety. It offers numerous advantages, such as fewer parts, optimized structures and systems, as well as delivering lower operations costs.”
Industry insiders added additional color the traditional OEMs struggle to innovate
this issue was hardly addressed with the new ceo a old hand at embraer with no experience in tech
When I shared the the reports of of EVE engineers scrambling to come up with a quality model for a prototype with two industry insiders one commented “i could of told you that” and the other said “ I am not surprised”
CEO of Eve Air Mobility just (resigned after about one and a half years. In December, a board member resigned “effective immediately” and this week another board member disclosed their intent to resign
Close to ZERO IP
Years Behind All competitors
CEO + Board Resignations
Priced at MKT cap 4 times its peers that have more IP and have been flying for years
Yet to create prototype scrambling and switching design
286 mil in cash and equivalents mostly on a loac facility from embraer estimate cost of bringing prototype all the way through certification is 1 billion dollars so even if by some fantastical miracle they they can bring something to market they will need raise likely close to another 500 million dollars just to get to mkt
over 600 employees in three different world HQs just doesn’t seem well structured
deceptive unrealistic CGI vs reality
trailing everyone
Disclaimer:
I am not a financial advisor don’t listen to anything I say assume it’s all BS do your own DD i may buy sell long short common shares or yolo calls puts in this or any stock at any time